Prices are now rising slightly after a slow start to 2024
House prices have risen slightly so far this year, but hopes of a significant market uplift have been delayed by stubbornly high mortgage rates.
The latest data from the Land Registry shows an annual rise of 1.8%, with the average UK house price standing at £283,000 in March. While this isn’t far off the all-time high of £292,000 recorded in September 2022, prices have generally been trending downwards rather than upwards. Here, we analyse what’s happening to house prices according to other indices including Nationwide, Halifax, Rightmove and Zoopla, and explains what might come next.
How Have House Prices Changed?
The Land Registry’s UK House Price Index is the most reliable barometer of what’s happening to house prices, as it’s based on actual property sales rather than asking prices. It works on a two-month lag, so the most recent figures are for March.
The Land Registry says the average price of a property in the UK increased by 1.8% between March 2023 and March 2024. In the 12 months prior, house price growth was 2.7%, indicating a slowdown over the past year.
There is a gap of £93,000 between the average price paid by first-time buyers and those already on the housing ladder in Great Britain (data is not available for Northern Ireland):
- First-time buyer: £236,000
- Home mover: £329,000
How Do Other House Price Indices Compare?
In addition to Land Registry data, several other property price indices indicate what’s going on with house prices. Rightmove provides the most up-to-date figures, but they’re based on asking prices set by sellers rather than confirmed sales. Zoopla’s figures are based on sold prices, mortgage valuations, and recently-agreed sales. Nationwide and Halifax also publish their own monthly data, based on mortgage lending.
Currently, Rightmove, Nationwide, and Halifax are all recording a small year-on-year rise in prices.
|
House Price Index |
Month-on-Month Change |
Year-on-Year Change |
|
Rightmove (May 2024) |
+0.8% |
+0.6% |
|
Zoopla (May 2024) |
0.0% |
-0.1% |
|
Nationwide (May 2024) |
+0.4% |
+1.3% |
|
Halifax (April 2024) |
+0.1% |
+1.1% |
House Price Changes by Region in March 2024
Price changes vary from region to region and country to country. Land Registry data shows that the majority of areas recorded slight price increases in March. London (-3.4%) experienced the biggest falls in the year to March 2024.
|
Country/Region |
Property Price |
Monthly Change |
Annual Change |
|
England |
£299,000 |
+0.5% |
+1% |
|
Scotland |
£192,000 |
+2.3% |
+6.7% |
|
Wales |
£214,000 |
+0.9% |
+1.3% |
|
Northern Ireland (Jan-Mar 2024) |
£178,000 |
+0.4% |
+4% |
|
East Midlands |
£242,000 |
+0.3% |
+1% |
|
East of England |
£342,000 |
+0.5% |
+0.8% |
|
London |
£500,000 |
-0.9% |
-3.4% |
|
North East |
£159,000 |
-0.4% |
+3.2% |
|
North West |
£217,000 |
+1.1% |
+3.8% |
|
South East |
£373,000 |
+0.3% |
-1.3% |
|
South West |
£316,000 |
+0.2% |
+0.5% |
|
West Midlands |
£246,000 |
+1.4% |
+2.4% |
|
Yorkshire & Humber |
£210,000 |
+2.2% |
+5% |
Source: UK House Price Index, 22 May 2024. Monthly data is not available for Northern Ireland; figures are released each quarter. Average prices are rounded to the nearest thousand.
How Many Homes Are Being Sold?
There was a marked drop-off in housing transactions last year, but there are now signs the market is picking up. The most recent data from HMRC shows that an estimated 90,430 transactions went through in April 2024, up 10% on April 2023.
The graph below shows how numbers have fluctuated over the past three years.
Source: HMRC, 31 May 2024. Figures represent all residential property transactions of £40,000 or above. Figures for February, March, and April 2024 are provisional.
Will the Property Market Pick Up?
Demand from buyers fell in 2023, with high mortgage rates resulting in the market cooling off. The estate agent trade body Propertymark says that the number of buyers registering with estate agents increased in March, but viewing numbers remained broadly in line with last year. A slower market means buyers hold the upper hand when negotiating a purchase price. Data from Zoopla shows sellers are most commonly reducing their asking prices by 5% or more in the South East and East of England. Rightmove says sellers are taking an average of 62 days to secure a buyer, a week longer than the 55 days recorded in April last year.
What Will Happen to House Prices?
At the start of 2024, lenders and estate agents expected a fairly bleak year for house prices. HSBC and Nationwide predicted prices would remain flat, while Halifax, Rightmove, and Zoopla projected drops of between 1% and 3%. However, more recent forecasts are more optimistic.
The estate agency Savills predicted a 3% drop in 2024 last November but has now upgraded its forecast to a 2.5% rise. It says this is underpinned by an easing of mortgage rates and a slightly improved outlook for economic growth. Knight Frank’s updated forecast is similar, predicting a 3% rise in the UK as a whole, and a 2% rise in Greater London.