The latest data from the Land Registry shows an annual rise of 1.1%, with the average UK house price standing at £281,000 in March. While this is not far off the all-time high of £292,000 recorded in September 2022, prices have mostly been trending downwards rather than upwards.
Here, we analyse what’s happening to house prices according to other indices, including Nationwide, Halifax, Rightmove, and Zoopla, and explain what might come next.
How Have House Prices Changed?
The Land Registry’s UK House Price Index is the most reliable measure of what’s happening to house prices, as it’s based on actual property sales rather than asking prices. It operates on a two-month lag, so the most recent figures are for April.
According to the Land Registry, the average price of a property in the UK increased by 1.1% between April 2023 and 2024.
In the 12 months prior, house price growth was 1.6%.
There is a gap of £90,000 between the average price paid by first-time buyers and those already on the housing ladder in Great Britain (data for Northern Ireland is not available):
- First-time buyer: £236,000
- Home mover: £326,000
How Do Other House Price Indices Compare?
Besides the Land Registry data, several other property price indices indicate current house price trends.
Rightmove provides the most up-to-date figures, but they’re based on asking prices set by sellers rather than confirmed sales. Zoopla’s figures are based on sold prices, mortgage valuations, and recently-agreed sales.
Nationwide and Halifax also publish their own monthly data based on mortgage lending.
Currently, Rightmove, Nationwide, and Halifax are all recording a small year-on-year rise in prices.
|
House Price Index |
Month-on-Month Change |
Year-on-Year Change |
|
Rightmove (June 2024) |
0.0% |
+0.6% |
|
Zoopla (June 2024) |
+0.1% |
0.0% |
|
Nationwide (June 2024) |
+0.2% |
+1.5% |
|
Halifax (May 2024) |
-0.1% |
+1.5% |
House Price Changes by Region in April 2024
Price changes vary from region to region and country to country.
Land Registry data shows the majority of areas recorded slight price increases in April. London experienced the biggest falls in the year to April 2024, with a 3.9% decrease.
|
Country/Region |
Property Price |
Monthly Change |
Annual Change |
|
England |
£298,000 |
+0.3% |
+0.6% |
|
Scotland |
£190,000 |
+1.3% |
+4.5% |
|
Wales |
£208,000 |
-2.1% |
+0.4% |
|
Northern Ireland (Jan-Mar 2024) |
£178,000 |
+0.4% |
+4% |
|
East Midlands |
£242,000 |
+0.7% |
+1.1% |
|
East of England |
£335,000 |
-0.7% |
+0.4% |
|
London |
£502,000 |
-0.2% |
-3.9% |
Source: UK House Price Index, 19 June 2024. Monthly data is not available for Northern Ireland; figures are released each quarter. Average prices are rounded to the nearest thousand.
How Many Homes Are Being Sold?
There was a marked drop-off in housing transactions last year, but there are now signs the market is picking up.
The most recent data from HMRC shows that an estimated 91,290 transactions were completed in May, up 17% from 2023’s figure.
The graph below shows how numbers have fluctuated over the past three years.
How Long Does It Take to Sell a Property?
Demand from buyers fell in 2023, with high mortgage rates resulting in a cooler market.
The estate agent trade body Propertymark reports that the number of buyers registering with estate agents increased in April, with around nine new applicants registering for each new available property.
Rightmove states that sellers are taking an average of 60 days to secure a buyer, compared to 55 days in May last year.
What Will Happen to House Prices?
At the start of 2024, lenders and estate agents predicted a fairly bleak year for house prices.
HSBC and Nationwide expected prices to remain flat, while Halifax, Rightmove, and Zoopla projected drops of between 1% and 3%.
However, recent forecasts have been more optimistic.
The estate agency Savills predicted a 3% drop in 2024 last November but has upgraded its forecast to a 2.5% rise.
It says this is underpinned by an easing of mortgage rates and a slightly improved economic outlook.
Knight Frank’s updated forecast is similar, predicting a 3% rise in the UK as a whole and a 2% rise in Greater London.